Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is projected to report its slowest revenue growth in four quarters on Tuesday, primarily due to heightened competition impacting its core Google Search business and dampening YouTube ad spending. This anticipated slowdown in these key segments is likely to overshadow growth from its cloud-computing unit, which has seen AI-driven gains this quarter. The quarter also marks the first since Anat Ashkenazi succeeded Ruth Porat as Alphabet’s Chief Financial Officer, a role she assumed amidst intensified scrutiny and competitive pressures.

Competitive Landscape

Google’s established dominance in digital advertising is facing new challenges from companies like Amazon and TikTok, which have increasingly attracted advertisers looking to engage large, ready-to-buy audiences. Analysts predict that Google Search and other related revenues will grow by 11.6% in the third quarter, a decrease from 13.8% growth in Q2, according to Visible Alpha data.

Additionally, new entrants like Perplexity AI and ChatGPT are gaining traction in search through generative AI, raising concerns that Google’s perceived slow response to these developments could further disrupt its market stronghold. Analysts at MoffettNathanson anticipate significant changes in Google’s ability to retain its exclusive search advantage on Apple and Android devices in the U.S.

Market Share Dynamics

A recent report from eMarketer indicates that Google’s share of U.S. search ad revenue could fall below 50% next year for the first time in 18 years. Amazon’s share is expected to climb to 24%, while other generative AI players continue to attract advertising dollars. In response, Google has started integrating ads into AI-generated summaries at the top of search results, a strategy analysts believe could help maintain its competitive edge.

Financial Performance

Alphabet’s stock experienced a nearly 9% drop in the three months leading to September, marking its largest quarterly decline since Q3 of 2022. However, it remains up by 17% for the year. Analysts estimate Alphabet’s overall Q3 revenue to have grown by 12.6% to $86.31 billion, slightly below the 13.6% growth seen in the prior quarter.

YouTube’s Revenue Challenges

YouTube has also felt the impact of advertisers shifting budgets toward ad-supported streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon Prime Video. YouTube’s revenue likely grew by 11.5% in Q3, down from a 13% increase in Q2. However, analysts at Truist suggest that YouTube, particularly YouTube TV, may have benefited from increased political ad spending during this quarter.

Bright Spots: Google Cloud

A bright spot for Alphabet remains Google Cloud, which is expected to achieve a 29.2% growth rate, marking the largest jump in seven quarters as companies invest more heavily in its AI offerings, including the Vertex AI platform that allows customers to leverage Google’s AI models or develop custom solutions. Alphabet has flagged higher capital expenditures this year as it expands its AI capabilities.

Cost Management Focus

With Ashkenazi now at the helm as CFO, there is an added focus on cost management amid rising competition. Analysts speculate about the possibility of further cost-cutting measures beyond Alphabet’s limited layoffs planned for 2024. The financial community will closely watch Ashkenazi’s strategies to contain rising expenses while maintaining competitive AI investments in the upcoming quarters.

Conclusion

As Alphabet prepares for its quarterly earnings report, the anticipated slowdown in revenue growth highlights the challenges it faces from increasing competition and shifting advertiser preferences. While Google Cloud shows promising growth driven by AI demand, Alphabet must navigate these pressures carefully to maintain its position as a leader in digital advertising and cloud computing.

The upcoming financial results will provide critical insights into how effectively Alphabet is adapting to these challenges and whether its strategies under new leadership can sustain long-term growth amidst a rapidly evolving tech landscape.